Monday, July 28, 2008

Paraguay, Late July, and the Revocatorio

A Paraguayan Perspective

I have been on vacation from my research for the past two weeks, so this entry consists mostly of cultural commentary and some updates on political developments in Bolivia. I am currently in transit to Peru from Asuncion, Paraguay, where I have been resting up and visiting a friend. Asuncion is the capital city, with a proud post-colonial history and a beautiful location along the Rio Paraguay.

Paraguay is similar to Bolivia in many ways, with a noticeably higher level of development and apparent quality of life. Ironically, Asuncion seemed much more dangerous than any of the Bolivian cities I have been in. Most houses in nice neighbourhoods have private guards because of the very real risk of kidnapping and armed robbery. A house we visited often had been robbed at gunpoint by three men in broad daylight less than a week before I arrived. The police are not trusted, regarded either as too cowardly to stand up to crime or complicit with the perpetrators. Corruption is still very much at large in the low (and high?) levels of government and law enforcement, in Paraguay as well as in Bolivia.

The countryside outside Asuncion looked healthy and often picturesque. On a trip to an ecological preserve, I got a glimpse of untarnished landscape that I imagined all of South America to look like before the constructs of modern civilization. This continent truly is a diverse and beautiful place. With the exception of simple roads, the fields and forests and farmhouses look much as they have for hundreds of years. The grinding poverty visible outside of Bolivian cities and along the highways was not to be seen in Paraguay, which may have as much to do with better farmland as with less agrarian oppression than in Bolivia.

One of the biggest differences between Paraguay and Bolivia is the colonial legacy in each country. Paraguay was the only Spanish colony where intermarrying with Native Americans was mandatory, and as a result the population is almost entirely mestizo, a mix between Spanish and indigenous Guaraní. This is a strong contrast to the culturally and geographically close Argentinean population, which is almost entirely of European descent, and is resented by Paraguayans for its arrogant attitude towards other South American countries.

Paraguayans consider themselves to be ethnically and culturally mixed, and while social and economic stratification is still clear, and poverty is still a problem, their political conflicts and issues lack that most polarizing element: race. Bolivia remains remarkably separated ethnically. There are 36 identifiable ethnic groups in the country, the most in Latin America, from the Aymara and Quechua of the altiplano to the diverse tribal groups of the Amazon basin and eastern lowlands.

The lack of racial integration has helped protect the heritage and culture of these indigenous groups, but it has also deepened social and political separations along pre-existing racial (and corresponding geographic) lines. This longstanding pattern of separation, especially between indigenous groups and whites and mestizos, is responsible for much (some would say most) of the antagonism and public hostility that accompanies Bolivian politics today.

The Paraguayan perspective on Bolivian society and politics was interesting, coming from a close neighbour with many social and economic similarities. Even upper class Paraguayans, who generally oppose his politics, considered Evo´s election a sign of hope for a country where indigenous oppression has been harsh and visible, and whose modern society is viewed as both racist and classist. A common view is that opposition to Evo is mainly the result of whites and mestizos who cannot stand to see an Indian ruling the country. This portrayal of the essence of the political conflict is common, and undoubtedly truthful to some extent, but as I have argued before I do not think that racism alone can explain Bolivia´s social problems. Race is certainly a powerful force for manipulation and propaganda, but the interests and motives behind racist rhetoric and action are more complex.

Revocatorio Anticipation: Political Temperature Rising in Bolivia

Back on the subject of Bolivian politics, the situation is as dynamic as ever. An opposition Senator submitted an objection to the legality of the law that enacted the Revocatorio back in May to the only remaining member of the Constitutional Tribunal in Sucre. The other 4 members of Bolivia´s highest court, appointed by the former right-wing president, had all resigned in protest over political interference (or after interfering unconstitutionally in the internal processes of the constitutional assembly), and the divided Legislature has not been able to agree on new judges. Despite the fact that a Tribunal decision must be reached by at least 3 members, the lone judge called for the Referendum to be postponed until the full tribunal could convene to review the vote´s constitutionality.

As expected, opposition Senators and the lone prefect who still refuses to participate in the Revocatorio (Cochabamba´s Manfred Reyes Villa, who actually originally proposed the idea more than a year ago, but who would likely be voted out of office on August 10) exalted the Judge´s decision and called for the government to obey. The Government called the Judge a traitor to democracy and ignored the request, while the National Electoral Court insisted that the constitutionally legislated vote must go ahead as planned unless it is refuted by Congress or a fully convened court.

It is unlikely that the vote is going to be stopped, though there is some speculation that the big date of August 10 will be just another Sunday. Either way, the build-up to the Revocatorio is in high gear. “Tensions are building in Bolivia”, as one international news headline declared. Evo´s ministers are accusing the oligarchic media of a concerted campaign to undermine the Revocatorio and cast doubt on the Presidency. They are also concerned about violence leading up to the vote, specifically from militant right-wing youth groups such as Santa Cruz´s Union Juvenil Cruceñista, which has been accused of Fascist affiliations and has been the instigator of racist violence several times in the past year.

The coalition of opposition prefects, meanwhile, announced plans to start protesting the day after the Revocatorio for a national referendum on the capital issue. They have learned, from the upheaval that they helped create in Sucre back in November, that the capitalía issue is a symbolic and passionate one for many Bolivians. It was instrumental in helping the opposition expand its popular support from the media luna into the Chuquisaca province during the past year.


As I mentioned in an earlier blog, the current constitution only allows for one national referendum a year, and this year´s recall referendum means that next year is the earliest possible vote on the new constitution. If the opposition prefects can push the capitalía issue effectively, they may be able to stall the constitutional referendum for another year, working in the meantime to fortify their autonomy statutes and weaken Evo.

On the economic front, the opposition is denouncing the central government’s renta dignidad, the first ever national pension plan. It covers all citizens over 60, and according to independent economic analysts has lowered the poverty levels by a full 2%. The catch: it is funded by the Direct Tax on Hydrocarbons (IDH), which the media luna prefects denounce as government interference in their economic affairs. The funny thing is that, by the numbers, IDH revenues to the media luna states have increased steadily every year since Evo took office.

Gas producer Tarija, with 4% of Bolivia´s population, gets a full one third of all IDH revenues. Along with Santa Cruz, Beni, and Pando, departmental revenues have increased between 100 and 200% between 2005, just before hydrocarbon nationalization began, and 2008.

Once again, these hard statistics came from an independent economist blog. The contrast with press coverage is startling. Economic headlines in Bolivian newspapers almost always deal only in statements and claims from politicians, mostly from the opposition. There is rarely any investigative journalism that produces facts rather than opinions, and of the few “investigations”, several turned up stories that turned out to be partially fabricated or entirely untrue.

Information is not easy to come by in Bolivia. Within the country, news sources are saturated with bias, and the lines between opinions and analysis are blurry at best. In the international news world, analysis is clouded by one-sided interviews (with US ambassadors, misinformed NGO executives, etc) and the aforementioned lack of solid information coming out of Bolivia.
With that in mind, I will try to keep my blog updated with developments as they happen. There remains less than 2 weeks until the Recall Referendum, and the intensity and unpredictability of the political scene is only likely to increase until August 10. I will be back in La Paz several days before the vote, and I can only hope for excitement and not violence. From Bolivia, signing off.

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